Time to invest in the stock market says Morgan Stanley


#1

Originally published at: http://whichinvestmenttrust.com/time-to-invest-in-the-stock-market-says-morgan-stanley/
The US investment bank has issued a “full house” alert to buy stocks globally for the first time in six years utilising the same system it employed that advised investors to sell just before the stock market crash. Past form means investors are taking note of Morgan Stanley’s ‘green alert’. The system has five major…


#2

Didn’t Morgan Stanley also issue a “full house” alert to buy back into equities in 2008, just before the Credit Crisis…?


#3

Did they? I read on Bloomberg (I think) that they issued a full house alert to sell just before the crash, and then one to buy again after the crash that although it was a little early came right in 12 months or so.

I can’t find the Bloomberg article or I’d link to it love.


#4

The article that I read recently was on the FT - but I can’t find that one now either! (I can only find a different comment on FT Alphaville). The first did say that they had issued a sell signal beforehand, but the buy signal started in October 2008 - but doesn’t say when in that month - so there was a further fall of somewhere between 38% and 26% - depending upon how far through the month the signal was triggered - before the bottom of the trough: I’m looking at the S&P 500 as a reference. Alphaville does quote from MS’s document highlighting the comment that the signals can be ‘a tad early’, with three of the six buy signals in the last 20 years being followed by further falls: 18% in 1998 (but significantly higher after 12 months); being 25% down after 12 months on from the 2001 signal; the 2002 signalled being followed by a 22% fall (but 7% higher after 12 months). They also say the the 2008/9 signal for europe worked initially but was 46% lower after 12 months.

So place your bets accordingly!


#5

I guess they can only really act as warnings, but they are something to take notice of. I’d not come across these Morgan Stanley warnings before.

Are you heading to the meeting/seminar Which IT are holding @arkwelder ?


#6

No @jonno, I won’t be attending. I’m more of a ‘read at leisure’ type, and usually inbetween doing other things, such as I am doing at the moment - watching the Liverpool perform in the Europa League…


#7

Shame, it would have been nice to met you in the flesh.


#8

Well done in finding so much info on this Arky, you’re terribly resourceful you know.


#9

I’m sure that the founders of Google might have a hand in matters, too!


#10

I hate to judge and I realise that a quarter is nothing in the world of investing but, they may have been a little too premature…


What does everyone think the rate rise will do? Or is it in play now!!